Abstract: How do social divisions affect the benefits of agglomeration? While the clustering of people can enhance productivity through social interactions, divisions such as ethnic segregation and tension may limit these gains. To answer this question, I leverage an ethnic-based resettlement program that forcibly relocated 600,000 rural Chinese into compact villages in 1950s British Malaya. I find that, decades later, areas with higher resettlement had persistently higher population densities and concentrations of Chinese, driven by both the program's direct impact and internal migration. Moreover, these areas were wealthier, more industrialized, and exhibited greater labor market specialization. However, the economic benefits primarily accrued to the Chinese, while other ethnic groups saw only marginal gains when geographically integrated with the Chinese and working in non-agricultural sectors. To assess the overall impacts of the program, I estimate a quantitative spatial model that allows local agglomeration externalities to vary by sector and ethnic composition. While the resettlement increased aggregate output, the gains were insufficient to offset the welfare losses from the program's coercive nature.
Abstract: We examine the long transition from water to steam power in US manufacturing, focusing on early users of mechanical power: lumber and flour mills. Digitizing Census of Manufactures manuscripts for 1850-1880, we show that as steam costs declined, manufacturing activity grew faster in counties with less waterpower potential. This growth was driven by steam powered entrants and agglomeration, as water powered incumbents faced switching barriers from sunk costs. Estimating a dynamic model of entry and steam adoption, we find that the interaction of switching barriers and high fixed costs creates a quantitatively important and socially inefficient drag on technology adoption.
Abstract: Strategies focused on winning the hearts and minds of local populations are increasingly viewed as more effective than military interventions in state-building and counterinsurgency. However, their long-term economic effects are not well understood. This paper examines the economic consequences of Myanmar's ceasefire agreements in the early 1990s, following over 30 years of civil conflict. Using difference-in-differences and triple-difference regressions, I find that after a ceasefire was signed, economic conditions such as nighttime light density and educational attainment deteriorated in areas more suitable for opium cultivation compared to less suitable areas within ceasefire zones. Anecdotal evidence suggests that, following the ceasefires, the central government and ethnic armed organizations may have prioritized control and extraction in the opium economy over investments in public goods essential for sustainable growth. To investigate this channel, I am collecting historical data on road construction from maps and satellite imagery.